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Iran Stuff
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Author Topic: Iran Stuff  (Read 4497 times)
wodan46
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« on: June 23, 2009, 22:48:43 EDT »

Discuss.  Assuming that anyone actually visits this forum anymore.
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The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes". Not "data".
Medivh
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« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2009, 04:20:29 EDT »

Zimbabwe all over again. Don't know why leaders of tin-pot dictatorships think they can get away with this kind of shit and not look bad.

Of course, "not looking bad" might not be one of their goals, and there's no military to back up fights for freedom these days. Especially given the joke that is the UN security council.
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And if i catch you comin' back my way
I'm gonna serve it to you
And that ain't what you want to hear
But that's what I'll do
-- "Seven Nation Army", The White Stripes

So what you're telling me is that LTV's fudge factor means more than it's independent variable?
Yes...
wodan46
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« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2009, 14:47:25 EDT »

And of course, the US never bothers to help at the times that people actually ask for it.  Not that we can really do anything here, any interference would simply make things worse.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2009, 23:02:19 EDT by wodan46 » Logged

The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes". Not "data".
Medivh
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2009, 09:25:57 EDT »

Then again...

A completely nsfw website tells me that the west might be making a mountain out of an anthill. To be honest, the poll results read off as dodgy to me, but I'm willing to believe that there aren't protests going on about it.

So few people are willing to be shot for maybe correcting something that's dodgy, maybe. So, I'm kinda back to "dunno what to think, haven't got enough info."
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And if i catch you comin' back my way
I'm gonna serve it to you
And that ain't what you want to hear
But that's what I'll do
-- "Seven Nation Army", The White Stripes

So what you're telling me is that LTV's fudge factor means more than it's independent variable?
Yes...
Current
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2009, 09:42:09 EDT »

I think it is very likely that Adhmadinejad won.  However I think there has been a great deal of stuffing of ballot boxes.  According to the state Mousavi lost in his own home town.  This is very unlikely, especially given that he is a member of a local ethnic group that generally votes for his party.

I think the people of Iran are protesting because they realize that future elections will not be fair.

It is all very hard to understand from the outside though, as usual.  I think other countries shouldn't do anything.  They are likely to only make things worse.
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wodan46
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2009, 16:07:28 EDT »

I think other countries shouldn't do anything.  They are likely to only make things worse.
In this case, I must agree with you, because any attempt to interfere in a foreign election will look bad, even if you are trying to fix it.
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The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes". Not "data".
Psy
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2009, 02:43:29 EDT »

I think it is very likely that Adhmadinejad won. 
If that was certainty he wouldn't have need to rig the elections. 

Quote from: Current
I think the people of Iran are protesting because they realize that future elections will not be fair.
The people are protesting because they no longer believe their grievances can be address via the ballot thus old wounds have also reopened in Iran.
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Current
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2009, 11:34:44 EDT »

Quote from: Psy
If that was certainty he wouldn't have need to rig the elections.
Though that is true it is important to understand that politicians are not infinitely knowledgeable about the present or necessarily smart.

Exit polls indicate the Adhmadinejad won.  That's why I think he probably did.  I think that he and the rest of the Iranian elite rigged them believing that this would not happen.  The decision to rig the election would have to have been long in advance of the election.

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Psy
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« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2009, 12:47:39 EDT »

Quote from: Psy
If that was certainty he wouldn't have need to rig the elections.
Though that is true it is important to understand that politicians are not infinitely knowledgeable about the present or necessarily smart.

Exit polls indicate the Adhmadinejad won.  That's why I think he probably did.  I think that he and the rest of the Iranian elite rigged them believing that this would not happen.  The decision to rig the election would have to have been long in advance of the election.
Actually they indicate a run-off election was highly probable (Iran uses the voting system were in close races another election is called with just the dominant candidates).
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Current
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2009, 13:42:56 EDT »

I didn't know that.  In that case I may be wrong.
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Blue Boy from Red Country
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2009, 15:11:50 EDT »

Quote from: Psy
If that was certainty he wouldn't have need to rig the elections.
Though that is true it is important to understand that politicians are not infinitely knowledgeable about the present or necessarily smart.

Exit polls indicate the Adhmadinejad won.  That's why I think he probably did.  I think that he and the rest of the Iranian elite rigged them believing that this would not happen.  The decision to rig the election would have to have been long in advance of the election.
Actually they indicate a run-off election was highly probable (Iran uses the voting system were in close races another election is called with just the dominant candidates).

My impression is that it was a close enough race that even if Mousavi didn't win a run-up election, it still would have cast enough doubt to tarnish Adhmadinejad's image and undermine his support.
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