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[ART]They're going to lose
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Author Topic: [ART]They're going to lose  (Read 5273 times)
Manufacturing Dissent
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« on: October 20, 2008, 11:16:36 EDT »

http://www.idrewthis.org/2008/10/theyre-going-to-lose.html
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"If it had not been for the discontent of a few fellows who had not been satisfied with their conditions, you would still be living in caves. Intelligent discontent is the mainspring of civilization.

Progress is born of agitation. It is agitation or stagnation."
     -Eugene Debs (1855- 1926)
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2008, 20:11:32 EDT »

Don't count the chickens and all that.

They probably will, but Dukakis looked real hot until the sudden smash-down.  'pubs often to better on ballot day then polling data seems to show, and the Bradley effect may play a role in this election.
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"No common man could believe such a thing, you'd have to be an intellectual to fall for anything as stupid as that."-Orwell
Laserlips
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2008, 12:06:23 EDT »

From what I understand, despite how often "race" gets mentioned in the press, pollsters seem to believe that the Bradley effect will NOT affect this election.  Surprising, I know.  Unfortunately, I don't remember the reference, so feel free to snort and disregard my input.  Tongue

I think the article mentioned that the reason the polls were even was that much of Obama's more vocal support comes from young voters, who as a group tend not to vote in large numbers.

Also, the ratings for news media have been dropping lately, and they are another group of very vocal Obama supporters.  Maybe not a cause and effect there, but certainly something.
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Mormons for Romney kind of sounds like it might be a palindrome, but it isn't.
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2008, 21:07:26 EDT »

The Bradley effect is debated as to wether or not it exists, but after the shit-kicking the grits took up here last election (way worse then we polled, by the by) I just warn against any party crowing victory.
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"No common man could believe such a thing, you'd have to be an intellectual to fall for anything as stupid as that."-Orwell
wodan46
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2008, 01:58:44 EDT »

From what I understand, despite how often "race" gets mentioned in the press, pollsters seem to believe that the Bradley effect will NOT affect this election.  Surprising, I know.  Unfortunately, I don't remember the reference, so feel free to snort and disregard my input.  Tongue

I think the article mentioned that the reason the polls were even was that much of Obama's more vocal support comes from young voters, who as a group tend not to vote in large numbers.

Also, the ratings for news media have been dropping lately, and they are another group of very vocal Obama supporters.  Maybe not a cause and effect there, but certainly something.

Currently, its theorized that the number of people not voting for Obama because he is black will be roughly equal in number to those who vote for him because he is black.  In either case, people who would vote for or against Obama on that criteria are already so far right or left that it wouldn't even matter anyway.
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2008, 03:44:50 EDT »

Given the lead Obama has, there would have to be a hell of a Bradley effect to swing the election the other way. I mean, North Carolina of all states is currently a toss-up according to the Super Duper NBC Electoral Map Majigger (TM).
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2008, 11:00:46 EDT »

Or the turn out is miscast.

Lots of people say they are going to vote, and don't, and lots of people who didn't vote before often do.
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"No common man could believe such a thing, you'd have to be an intellectual to fall for anything as stupid as that."-Orwell
Laserlips
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2008, 09:34:43 EDT »

There's also the problem where "voting for Obama" becomes a cultural movement, and people want to be a part of it.  Obama is a meme.  Everybody loves memes!

Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who would honestly tell pollsters, "Yes, I'm voting for LOLCATS for President," and then go pull the lever for Ron Paul.
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Economic Left/Right: -1.50
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Mormons for Romney kind of sounds like it might be a palindrome, but it isn't.
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2008, 10:54:53 EDT »

Not that many people though. Research by top scienticians indicates that they're more likely to go "Yes, I'm voting for LOLCATS for President," and then stay home on election day because they can't be arsed.

People will say all kinds of things to pollsters. Or censuses (censi?). Which is why jedi is a listed religion in California. Or Great Britain. I can't remember.
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2008, 13:01:21 EDT »

I got my hopes up four years ago and America disappointed me. Seriously disappointed me. I refuse to make the same mistake again.

Let's not forget that Republicans cheat.
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2008, 16:12:00 EDT »

As do the Democrats, they just aren't as good at it.

Part of me admires the republican approach of "be shameless", I mean, if you're going to cheat a little then why not cheat a whole freaking bunch.
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"No common man could believe such a thing, you'd have to be an intellectual to fall for anything as stupid as that."-Orwell
Laserlips
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2008, 22:30:49 EDT »

That's ACORN's motto!
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Mormons for Romney kind of sounds like it might be a palindrome, but it isn't.
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2008, 22:42:33 EDT »

Try to know something about the subject before saying that.
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wodan46
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2008, 23:11:30 EDT »

That's ACORN's motto!
Do you have evidence that ACORN has consistently cheated on a wide variety of things?

Also, why exactly is ACORN evil again other than that Republicans say that?

Seriously, one person takes from the rich and gives to the poor, and the other takes from the poor and gives to the rich, and people somehow think the first person is better morally and economically?  Converting the unemployed and desperate into productive members of society is more important than allowing rich people to lazily coast on the wealth that has condensed below them, often wealth collected by siphoning from their employees and customers alike.  I understand that the government intervening in economic affairs can go sour, however, instead we let the corporations dominate the government and make it intervene in their favor only.
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The plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes". Not "data".
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